Since politics and religion are areas that can cause controversy on forums, I messaged Liam (@moveclubadmin) before I started this topic.
First, for those that are not aware the UK is going to be voting on June 23rd about leaving the EU. This has potential to be disruptive for many UK expats or expat hopefuls. The polls on it are really too close to call.
If it passes there are some things that are likely to occur, such as border control between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. There will be a two year exit period.
As for expats, it is hard to say. Some views say they would become illegal immigrants overnight. While that is the least likely, it is possible.
Another possibility is the Vienna Convention of 1969 would means those already moved would retain their status.
According to a recent article in The Telegraph, Ireland has the second largest British expat population at 249k. Only Spain has more at 319k.
This personally interests me because as a dual US/UK citizen, my dreams of moving were supported by the free movement of EU citizens and the EU family reunification.
Interesting topic, and I'm sure it's heavily discussed all over the internet, but maybe not from the perspective of people moving to Ireland.
It's certainly going to be interesting to see how it goes. Personally I hope they stay in the EU. I read the odd news report on the topic, and it seems as though it's a case of whichever side can cause the most uncertainty, may win. The 'Leave' crowd seem to be doing plenty of scaremongering. Some of what they say seems impossible to say could be predicted (stronger long term economy etc). There are just so many factors.
As regards a manned border between the North and the Republic...I really hope that never becomes a reality. It'd be like going back in time to when things weren't so good.
I definitely see how in your case it could have a significant impact, however I think British people in general would be far worse affected than Irish. At least we, as Irish passport holders, would still be able to move freely between the other 27(?) countries.
Would you consider a UK move instead? I remember you saying an Irish move was easier for some reasons (your non-UK family, right?)
I'd like to hear Tony's @tony2phones opinion on this.
EU countries can put more restrictions on their own citizens for family reunification. So for the UK my spouse and children are not UK citizens. I think one of the other forum participants said that Denmark was more restrictive for their non-EU spouse than any other EU country would be.
Enda Kenny has stated border control would probably be needed. (was reported in several UK and Irish news sources after his comments at a recent GAA match in London). There is also a UK document on that as well - https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/503908/54538_EU_Series_No2_Accessible.pdf
Been in the UK for a couple of weeks, North West England so not the financial heartland where decisions will be made (as usual) The general take has been either zero interest because most folk believe it won't effect them either way or a couple of Britex votes because we (uk) always managed without the EU, fact that that was 30 yrs ago before Britain sold all its Gold reserves seems immaterial.
There is a lot of miss information and a lack of real facts being put about, lets face it no one knows the real facts because until the UK leave the EU (which won't happen?) any speculation is just guess work.
My honest take on the matter. If Germany and France are the parents then the UK is the spoiled child, gets 99% of its own way. Even has its own currency (mainly because Norman Lamont near bankrupted the UK trying to get into the Euro system as it was in late 92).
The Anglo Irish agreements will not be effected although the joke was that when the US builders have finished Trumps Mexican wall they will get a job bricking off the 6 counties. (I think they will be perfectly happy in Mexico with Trump on the other side)
Interesting though that this vote has been strategically dated to coincide with the 3rd week of Euro Soccer?
A few ex leaders commenting on this topic recently:
Blair and Major warn Brexit threatens unity of United Kingdom
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0609/794271-brexit/
McAleese warns of Brexit dangers for Irish in the UK
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/mcaleese-warns-of-brexit-dangers-for-irish-in-the-uk-34784910.html
Tony, good one about Trump 🙂 I'm sure we'd have tunnels too, as well as the wall...
This has been interesting for my family because the brexit vote is causing a delay in my husbands job transfer. His employer is a very large multinational and while there is an office in Dublin and his position would be based out of Dublin, it is technically tied to their UK operations.
Since neither side is really stating what the UK would look like if it split from the EU, his employer basically has a hold on all positions at the moment. If they do leave the EU, does that mean business operations would have to be split? If so, does the ROI have enough business to support itself if his company made their own ROI branch? How does it affect NI? Currently, there are people that work out of the Dublin office that are UK citizens through NI - do they no longer have a job if brexit actually occurs?
I am sure his employer is not the only one going through this, considering how many multinationals are based in the UK and even here in Ireland.
Personally, I don't see the point of the UK leaving the EU and it seems like it will cause a lot more disruption and chaos than anything. If they do, would they fall under the EEA therefore still allowing UK/EU citizens to work in any of the EEA countries?
The vote is about leaving the EU.
That means evoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which can be summarized as any country can leave with 2 years notice.
Staying in the EEA would be a separate negotiation, and could be drawn out, and possibly need a second referendum.
As for the 1920's agreements, one person I know in Ireland has raised the fact that the EU has to sign off on all trade and border agreements, and that could interfere with reverting to those.
These are some of the reasons Irish companies and politicians are campaigning against the Brexit. For example RyanAir has been campaigning, and even complaints were registered against them by the Leave campaign.
http://www.businessinsider.com/ryanair-will-send-pro-remain-emails-to-over-5-million-customer-2016-6?r=UK&IR=T
As for staying in the EEA, that middle ground idea that the leave campaign has pointed to as one possibility has been contradicted as a possibility by the German finance minister. It is in this stream - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/10/eu-referendum-labour-takes-centre-stage-as-andy-burnham-says-ver/
Interesting article. It uses the Irish referendums on the Lisbon Treaty, and a few more examples to argue a leave vote may not mean a Brexit will occur.
http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/36422-why-a-leave-vote-may-not-result-in-a-brexit